THE POLLING BLUES - AT 9:17 A.M. ET:  In America, our system of states plays a critical role in our politics, and who gets what and how much.  An examination of the midwestern states, and others, shows the extent of the political problems the Obama administration is facing, less than a year into its term.  From Politics Daily:

Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling, which did some of the new surveys cited here, observes: "Obama generally seems to be having problems in the Midwest. A Des Moines Register poll (Nov. 8-11) showed Obama's approval rating there dropping to 49%. A Quinnipiac poll a few weeks ago in Ohio showed 50% of voters disapproving of him there to just 45% approval. A recent Rasmussen survey in Minnesota found him only slightly in positive territory, 51/48. He won all three of those states last year by margins ranging from 4 points in Ohio to 10 points in Iowa and Minnesota."

One thing that is increasingly disturbing is the division of the country along ethnic lines.  Consider California, for example:

SurveyUSA reports that Californians approve of the job Obama is doing by 62 percent to 33 percent with 5 percent undecided. Whites disapprove by 50 percent to 46 percent (the margin of error is 4 percentage points) but blacks, who make up 6 percent of the sample, approve by 80 percent to 19 percent and Hispanics, who make up 28 percent of the sample, approve by 75 percent to 17 percent.

COMMENT:  A cautionary note about polls:  Rasmussen generally has Obama's figures lower than other polls.  This may reflect methodology.  Rasmussen polls among likely voters, whereas other organizations may poll among all voters or even all citizens above a certain age.  Republicans tend to do better among likely voters than in other samples.

But there's no denying that Obama's poll numbers are, in most places, declining.  That is not a guarantee of the future, but clearly this White House has become a disappointment to many.  If the real economy, as opposed to the Wall Street economy, continues in the doldrums, Obama's numbers are not likely to improve.

November 27, 2009